In some respects, the Idol competition resembles an election. Of course there's voting and an eventual winner, but I'm thinking more about the primary phase of elections and the gradual whittling down of contenders. In politics, as candidates drop out there's suddenly a fresh well of support for the remaining contenders to draw from.
Ditto for American Idol. Certainly the effect won't be a large one at this stage of the competition with the votes spread out over so many contestants. But with each passing week as the field shrinks, the votes will become more and more concentrated.
This is where a fairly polarizing, love-him-or-hate-him competitor like Adam Lambert could find himself in trouble. Reading around the blogosphere this week, it's clear that Adam has a lot of supporters, but it also seems that he's nearly as likely to be disliked as he is to be liked.
Contrast this with someone like Danny or Lil, or even Anoop. Not everyone is terribly impressed with that group, either, but there's hardly any "I can't stand Danny" sentiment out there, while there's a fair amount of it directed at Adam.
Despite the adoration from the judges thus far, as singers get sent home and more and more votes come up for grabs, Adam might find himself picking up fewer of them than expected.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Crystal Ball: Anoop Desai
Since I'm not convinced he'll be with us much longer, I thought I'd spend a little time considering the future prospects for Anoop. If I don't do it now, I may never have the chance.
As noted previously, Dial Idol suggests that, despite him being lined up with Jorge to find out his fate, Anoop was actually nowhere near the bottom two. Because his poor performance and the judges' negative comments gave the impression that he'd be fighting for his life as the votes rolled in, there was production value in prolonging that particular drama. But Anoop's base of support appears very strong, at least for the time being.
So, I'm going to play devil's advocate to my earlier musings about how Anoop could struggle with the upcoming Grand Ole Opry theme. In listening to his studio recording of "Beat It," it becomes apparent again that Anoop possesses a fine voice, certainly one that's on par with many of the finalists. The high-energy, all-over-the-stage performance did him no favors, as it hurt the quality of his singing and his command of the stage was average at best.
At its best, I think his voice is rather soulful. If he can shelve his desire to be Noop-Dogg this week and instead buckle down and nail his vocals, that coupled with his fan-base should be enough to push him through. If I were him, I'd look for a safe song for next week. He has fans, so blowing the judges away is less important right now than simply not blowing his performance.
Beyond that, with Motown Week likely on the horizon, a chance for him to get back to what he does best isn't far off.
As noted previously, Dial Idol suggests that, despite him being lined up with Jorge to find out his fate, Anoop was actually nowhere near the bottom two. Because his poor performance and the judges' negative comments gave the impression that he'd be fighting for his life as the votes rolled in, there was production value in prolonging that particular drama. But Anoop's base of support appears very strong, at least for the time being.
So, I'm going to play devil's advocate to my earlier musings about how Anoop could struggle with the upcoming Grand Ole Opry theme. In listening to his studio recording of "Beat It," it becomes apparent again that Anoop possesses a fine voice, certainly one that's on par with many of the finalists. The high-energy, all-over-the-stage performance did him no favors, as it hurt the quality of his singing and his command of the stage was average at best.
At its best, I think his voice is rather soulful. If he can shelve his desire to be Noop-Dogg this week and instead buckle down and nail his vocals, that coupled with his fan-base should be enough to push him through. If I were him, I'd look for a safe song for next week. He has fans, so blowing the judges away is less important right now than simply not blowing his performance.
Beyond that, with Motown Week likely on the horizon, a chance for him to get back to what he does best isn't far off.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Grading System Revisited
For those who are new to the site, here's a link to the post explaining my grading system.
And here's my first shot at applying it to the Season 8 field.
And here's my first shot at applying it to the Season 8 field.
Round of 13 Studio Recordings
Courtesy of Idol Blog Live, full-length versions of all 13 performer's songs.
Preview: Grand Ole Opry Week
While my dearth of country music knowledge means I won't be offering song choice recommendations for each singer this week, that doesn't mean I have no thoughts on the matter.
At first blush, this isn't a theme that seems to bode well for Anoop dragging himself out of the doghouse. He's relied on his energy to get him this far, but it's not like he can actually take over a stage. It's often been a slightly awkward energy that people respond to because he seems like a good guy. I don't see country as a format that does him any favors.
On the flip side, Megan ought to be able to find a song that can help her "serious up" for a week and show a little vocal range, if she has it. Her quirky voice might not be a great straight-up pop voice, but with country there's always room for a slightly unorthodox set of pipes.
Other winners:
Adam Lambert - Blank check to show entirely different side
Alexis Grace - We know she can pull this off
Danny Gokey - Can do no wrong at this point
Lil Rounds - Like Adam, chance for her to show some versatility
Michael Sarver - Country fans probably make up his base of supporters
Other Losers:
Allison Iraheta - "Jolene" is the obvious choice, not necessarily wise
Matt Giraud - Chance to impress, but I don't expect it
Kris Allen - Next to Anoop, he's in the most trouble here
Scott MacIntyre - Piano might need to save him again
At first blush, this isn't a theme that seems to bode well for Anoop dragging himself out of the doghouse. He's relied on his energy to get him this far, but it's not like he can actually take over a stage. It's often been a slightly awkward energy that people respond to because he seems like a good guy. I don't see country as a format that does him any favors.
On the flip side, Megan ought to be able to find a song that can help her "serious up" for a week and show a little vocal range, if she has it. Her quirky voice might not be a great straight-up pop voice, but with country there's always room for a slightly unorthodox set of pipes.
Other winners:
Adam Lambert - Blank check to show entirely different side
Alexis Grace - We know she can pull this off
Danny Gokey - Can do no wrong at this point
Lil Rounds - Like Adam, chance for her to show some versatility
Michael Sarver - Country fans probably make up his base of supporters
Other Losers:
Allison Iraheta - "Jolene" is the obvious choice, not necessarily wise
Matt Giraud - Chance to impress, but I don't expect it
Kris Allen - Next to Anoop, he's in the most trouble here
Scott MacIntyre - Piano might need to save him again
Grand Ole Opry Week
Next week we'll be hearing us some country music. It's Grand Ole Opry week on Idol. I was hoping to do some song predictions or recommendations, but I have to just 'fess up and admit I know next to nothing about country.
If you're not opposed to mild spoilers, Vote For The Worst has the list of songs the contestants can choose from for next week. Even with the list sitting in front of me I have little to no idea what choices might be wise or misguided for the competitors. I'll likely leave the speculation to you.
If you're not opposed to mild spoilers, Vote For The Worst has the list of songs the contestants can choose from for next week. Even with the list sitting in front of me I have little to no idea what choices might be wise or misguided for the competitors. I'll likely leave the speculation to you.
Idol Judges and the Hand of God
And so the "mystery" rule proves to be a one-time, save-someone's-ass rule. I don't have any problem with it. After reading rumors that this indeed is what they had planned, my one concern was that they would be able to exercise it to many rounds into the competition.
Hearing Simon say it must be invoked prior to the Top 5 seems a reasonable way to do it. Allowing it any deeper into the competition would allow them to play to large a role in shaping the final weeks of the show. This way, for the most part, they'll just have to stick to pushing certain singers with their post-performance comments.
When they do use it, whatever ramifications it proves to have on the competition will likely stir controversy one way or another. Of course, that's sort of the point. But I think it's an acceptable, minimally invasive tweak to the system.
Hearing Simon say it must be invoked prior to the Top 5 seems a reasonable way to do it. Allowing it any deeper into the competition would allow them to play to large a role in shaping the final weeks of the show. This way, for the most part, they'll just have to stick to pushing certain singers with their post-performance comments.
When they do use it, whatever ramifications it proves to have on the competition will likely stir controversy one way or another. Of course, that's sort of the point. But I think it's an acceptable, minimally invasive tweak to the system.
Round of 13 Results Wrap-Up
Well, I'm eating a bit of early crow for just last night touting Jasmine as a potential sleeper in the competition. Not that her performance made her a no-brainer to advance by any stretch of the imagination, but I thought the impression of her strong Wild Card performance would still be fresh enough in people's minds to earn her another chance next week.
So much for that.
Reading other people's predictions earlier in the day, Jorge was very nearly a consensus pick to be sent home. I can hold my head high on this one, as I had him in the bottom two in the Power Rankings. I guess I should take this opportunity to make it clear that the Power Rankings represent I feel each singer stands in the public's mind in the competition, and the weekly performance summaries are where I evaluate each one as a competitor only and ignore potential voting results.
Jorge deserved better than this. He was superior to about half the field on Tuesday, but he just didn't have any kind of X-factor working for him to boost his appeal. He was sweet, and so was Jasmine, but that will never be enough.
Hot Seat For Next Week: Anoop Desai
Even if there are indications he wasn't close to getting the boot tonight, Anoop's somehow skated by thus far without putting on a truly strong performance in any round. With pretty much everyone left possessing either talent or likeability, he has no choice but to stop being so mediocre.
So much for that.
Reading other people's predictions earlier in the day, Jorge was very nearly a consensus pick to be sent home. I can hold my head high on this one, as I had him in the bottom two in the Power Rankings. I guess I should take this opportunity to make it clear that the Power Rankings represent I feel each singer stands in the public's mind in the competition, and the weekly performance summaries are where I evaluate each one as a competitor only and ignore potential voting results.
Jorge deserved better than this. He was superior to about half the field on Tuesday, but he just didn't have any kind of X-factor working for him to boost his appeal. He was sweet, and so was Jasmine, but that will never be enough.
Hot Seat For Next Week: Anoop Desai
Even if there are indications he wasn't close to getting the boot tonight, Anoop's somehow skated by thus far without putting on a truly strong performance in any round. With pretty much everyone left possessing either talent or likeability, he has no choice but to stop being so mediocre.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Dial Idol Predictions
Checking out last night's Dial Idol readings, tonight could prove to be a pretty interesting results show, especially depending on exactly what the mysterious rule change turns out to be.
No real surprises at the top, with the minor exception of Danny appearing to beat out Adam for the #1 slot. If you read my breakdown of last night's performances you know I'm not terribly surprised by it, but it serves as a slight rebuttal of the judges' ushy-gushy praise. Nice to see the screwy phone number issue didn't hurt Alexis.
Anoop in the #5 slot borders on shocking. Again, great personality, but the performance was bad. Take nothing for granted, and take the judges' words with a grain of salt.
Scott at #6 is disappointing but not surprising, as discussed here.
But the true stunner, if the estimates are accurate, is Allison checking in way down at #12. I can't figure that out. Good performance, good reviews, but struggling for votes. If she really is in danger of getting booted, here's hoping tonight's surprise twist can keep her on the show.
Dial Idol predictions
No real surprises at the top, with the minor exception of Danny appearing to beat out Adam for the #1 slot. If you read my breakdown of last night's performances you know I'm not terribly surprised by it, but it serves as a slight rebuttal of the judges' ushy-gushy praise. Nice to see the screwy phone number issue didn't hurt Alexis.
Anoop in the #5 slot borders on shocking. Again, great personality, but the performance was bad. Take nothing for granted, and take the judges' words with a grain of salt.
Scott at #6 is disappointing but not surprising, as discussed here.
But the true stunner, if the estimates are accurate, is Allison checking in way down at #12. I can't figure that out. Good performance, good reviews, but struggling for votes. If she really is in danger of getting booted, here's hoping tonight's surprise twist can keep her on the show.
Dial Idol predictions
Backstory Boosts
Personally, I'd be happier if we knew nothing whatsoever about the competitors' personal lives. I'd much rather see everyone earn their votes strictly based upon what they do on stage, but this is not the world we live in. I'm by no means suggesting that anyone on the show who has endured a hardship is "lucky" because it may earn them some sympathy- or empathy-based votes. But personal history undoubtedly plays a role in attracting support from viewers, so here's a quick rundown of the contestants I think have the most to gain based on their lives before Idol.
1. Danny Gokey - Imagine every song is for his late wife.
2. Scott MacIntyre - Classic "against-all-odds" story.
3. Lil Rounds - Home destroyed by tornado, young family displaced.
4. Jorge Nunez - Speech therapy to hide accent. It choked Paula up...
5. Michael Sarver - Dirty job, pretty voice.
6. Megan Joy - Young divorcee. Shouldn't matter, but it's something.
I don't see any of the other seven contestants having anything working in their favor, and really, the top three here are the only ones who's histories are likely to affect the outcome of the competition in any significant way.
1. Danny Gokey - Imagine every song is for his late wife.
2. Scott MacIntyre - Classic "against-all-odds" story.
3. Lil Rounds - Home destroyed by tornado, young family displaced.
4. Jorge Nunez - Speech therapy to hide accent. It choked Paula up...
5. Michael Sarver - Dirty job, pretty voice.
6. Megan Joy - Young divorcee. Shouldn't matter, but it's something.
I don't see any of the other seven contestants having anything working in their favor, and really, the top three here are the only ones who's histories are likely to affect the outcome of the competition in any significant way.
Top 13 Power Rankings
Here are my power rankings after tonight's performances.
The Favorite
1. Adam Lambert -- No way around it.
The Contenders
2. Alexis Grace -- Did anyone see this coming a month ago?
3. Danny Gokey -- Can do some things Adam can't.
4. Lil Rounds -- Should be able to coast for a few weeks.
Contending To Contend
5. Allison Iraheta -- More than a power ballad specialist?
The Sleeper
6. Jasmine Murray -- Sing 'em if ya got 'em.
Maybe If You Were Better
7. Matt Giraud -- And if NKOTB needed a pianist.
8. Megan Joy -- Stop smiling for once. Remember your divorce?
9. Michael Sarver -- Your fellow roughnecks support you! (Pussy.)
My Mom Voted For Me. Repeatedly.
10. Kris Allen -- Next time, instead of singing, just take a piss on your guitar.
11. Scott MacIntyre -- Napoleon Dynamite called, wants his charisma back.
Sayonara
12. Jorge Nunez -- Zzzzzzzz.
13. Anoop Desai -- Fuck Duke.
The Favorite
1. Adam Lambert -- No way around it.
The Contenders
2. Alexis Grace -- Did anyone see this coming a month ago?
3. Danny Gokey -- Can do some things Adam can't.
4. Lil Rounds -- Should be able to coast for a few weeks.
Contending To Contend
5. Allison Iraheta -- More than a power ballad specialist?
The Sleeper
6. Jasmine Murray -- Sing 'em if ya got 'em.
Maybe If You Were Better
7. Matt Giraud -- And if NKOTB needed a pianist.
8. Megan Joy -- Stop smiling for once. Remember your divorce?
9. Michael Sarver -- Your fellow roughnecks support you! (Pussy.)
My Mom Voted For Me. Repeatedly.
10. Kris Allen -- Next time, instead of singing, just take a piss on your guitar.
11. Scott MacIntyre -- Napoleon Dynamite called, wants his charisma back.
Sayonara
12. Jorge Nunez -- Zzzzzzzz.
13. Anoop Desai -- Fuck Duke.
Top 13 - Michael Jackson
Here we go with the Round of 13. In case you haven't scrolled down far enough, here's a link explaining the grading scale I'm using to evaluate the competitors.
http://scoutingtheidols.blogspot.com/2009/03/scale.html
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Lil Rounds - "The Way You Make Me Feel"
Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 40
Versatility: 50
Star power: 55
Song choice: 50
Solid across the board. Not the same kind of "wow" performance from the previous round, but that's less an indictment of her skills than a logical by-product of the concentrated talent pool. It's suddenly much harder to separate yourself. I think she's in the upper third as far as pure ability, but she'll need to return to last week's form before I up the rating. The outfit was hideous; I tried to give it a 40 but couldn't do it. She does command a stage better than most at this point, even in that crazy get-up. Safe, solid song choice, as well. She probably could have picked something that would have let her show off more, but this one fit her personality we know thus far, and since she led off the show it was important to sing something upbeat.
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Scott MacIntyre - "Keep the Faith"
Vocal ability: 40
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 40
Star power: 40
Song choice: 55
Passionless. Awkward. Occasionally screechy. I think I think he's the worst singer to make it this far. That said, he was at least consistently mediocre throughout the performance. Seemed like there were a couple moments in the song when he could have at least attempted to do something a bit more interesting vocally, but he passed on them. It's hard to imagine him nailing any Michael Jackson song. He wisely chose to use the piano, but that shouldn't carry him far, either. Stage presence-wise, it had all the drama of a middle school recital. All of that said, he's an inspirational story of sorts and probably the most likely contestant to last longer than his skills actually justify.
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Danny Gokey - "P.Y.T (Pretty Young Thing)"
Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 55
Star power: 50
Song choice: 55
Right now I think he's the second-best singer in the competition. I really like the soulful lower register he possesses. I rate the consistency high because each time he's performed there's been no doubt that his performance would prove to be one of the standouts. His snazzier look was an improvement in my opinion, but I'm still not sure he's found the right one just yet. Ditching the glasses might help pull it all together. He's done an excellent job thus far showing off his versatility, having nailed a Mariah Carey ballad and an energetic MJ number. The dancing left plenty to be desired, but that's of no concern, at least not at this point. He's very likable, but not what you'd call charismatic. Another solid song choice which effectively showcased his personality, though I'd liked to have seen him take a stab at "Will You Be There."
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Michael Sarver - "You Are Not Alone"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 40
Song choice: 55
The surprise of the night. I was so disappointed about him advancing to this round I actually wanted him to forget his lyrics tonight just to ensure he'd go no farther. Certainly not the best singer, but he sung well enough tonight to advance. Nothing about him says "star," so without the pipes or the presence to lean compensate for other weaknesses, I doubt he'll last long. But the steadiness suggests he could get by for a couple more weeks if some other competitors choke. He sung the exact kind of song he needed to, but I still find him boring.
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Jasmine Murray - "I'll Be There"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 50
Well, the numbers don't lie. She was average. There were moments when she seemed on the verge of trying to take the song over, but she either shied away or just doesn't have it in her; I'm still on the fence about which it is. She's got the looks but doesn't demand attention as a performer or personality. Given her age, I think maybe she just lacks the confidence to take a risk and try to turn some heads. Instead of flaming out, she's content to fade away, and that's probably the path she's headed down. She'll hang around for a few weeks until average is no longer good enough to make the cut. That said, out of everyone clustered in the middle of the pack, she's the best bet to suddenly figure something out and turn herself into a legitimate contender.
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Kris Allen - "Remember the Time"
Vocal ability: 45
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 45
Song choice: 45
When he was in college I'm sure he was the dreamy boy who played guitar and sang, but now he's stuck battling Scott to avoid being the worst of the Top 13. A painful performance. After choosing "Man in the Mirror" earlier on, you'd think he'd have a grasp of what MJ songs he can and can't do. What was the point of the guitar? He could have just played air-guitar and we wouldn't have heard any fewer chords. At least Scott displayed a genuine talent with the piano. The song choice was probably as good as he could have done, short of a mediocre, repeat performance of MITM. Now that we know he's married, hopefully that will suppress the teenage girl vote enough to send him home ASAP.
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Allison Iraheta - "Give In To Me"
Vocal ability: 55
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 55
Song choice: 55
One of my favorites coming into this round, and she just happens to choose my favorite MJ song (just let it go, we're not here to talk about me). I had her rendition of Heart's "Alone" stuck in my head for a week. She doesn't hit every note when she belts out these songs, but thus far her passion and audaciousness have carried her through. Also, quite a bold song choice for a 16-year-old. None of that is an attempt to divert attention from a middling voice, because I think her voice is very good and she hasn't yet shown her full range. Which brings us to the one negative up to this point: while her two performances have been excellent, they've been nearly identical in tone. She's been clear about "who she is" and I think she chose the perfect song, but she'll also have to master some other song styles as she moves on.
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Anoop Desai - "Beat It"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 40
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 40
Likable guy, obviously, and he doesn't deserve to go home just yet, but he won't be around very long. Sometimes it seems he has a pretty good voice, but I don't think he knows what to sing to let it come out consistently week to week. Tonight's effort was pretty bad. He seems most comfortable with the upbeat songs, but it didn't work for him tonight. Choosing something from "Dangerous" would have been smarter and suited him better. Again, I think he underperformed his true talent level, and I don't usually subscribe to the "some songs are untouchable" school of thought, but if you choose "Beat It," you need to own it. He didn't.
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Jorge Nunez - "Never Can Say Goodbye"
Vocal ability: 55
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 45
Song choice: 45
I think Jorge has a good voice, but whereas there seemed to be some power in his performance in the last round, tonight it just sounded nice. He sang well, but also never did anything to make you pay attention. He's awkward on stage and quickly needs to show that he's something more than just a capable crooner.
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Megan Joy - "Rockin' Robin"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 60
Versatility: 40
Star power: 45
Song choice: 40
Another one who needs to break out of her comfort zone before it's too late. She's won the beauty contest, but now she needs to get serious about singing. I know I lauded a couple of similar performances from Allison and now I've taken to criticizing on similar grounds, but the magnitude of Allison's efforts dwarf Megan's. Megan has shown "who she is," is very good at what she does, and could very easily end up recording records being the performer we've seen. But tonight I just kept thinking how lucky she was that MJ had a song like this in his catalog. I don't know what else she could have sung. I like her voice and her look (sexier dress outweighs hideous tattoo, for now), but I also want to see a less-perky version before I'm willing to consider her even a fringe contender. Now, if she'd sang "Dirty Diana"...
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Adam Lambert - "Black or White"
Vocal ability: 65
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 50
Star power: 60
Song choice: 55
I know, I know, he has a ridiculous voice (can we have Hair Metal Week, please). But remember, the ratings are starting a bit on the conservative side here. There's no denying he's the class of the competition right now, though I'm a bit curious to see how he handles it when he has to knock the pure energy level down a notch or two. MJ is right up his vocal alley, and I wish he'd busted out "Thriller" or "Bad." He's had two knockout performances, but I don't think he can be that overwhelming every single week. There might even be some weeks where he's outdone by someone else. So, this is also where I insert a few words of caution about viewing the rest of the competition as an extended coronation. Yes, it's likely that he will continue to sing circles around just about everyone else, but let's not underestimate the potential for "Adam Fatigue" to set in. People do tend to push back at least a little bit when they feel they're not being given a fair chance to make up their own minds, and the judges sure haven't been shy about placing him on a pedestal all by his lonesome. As we get into the final rounds, other singers will have built up their fair share of fans, and it's possible that there will be enough collective resentment over feeling "their guy" never had a fair shot that enough voters line up against him. Being the best doesn't mean you can't lose.
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Matt Giraud - "Human Nature"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 50
He seemed to know exactly what he needed to do to safely advance. I think he probably has a good enough voice to have sung something more memorable, but singing nicely and playing the piano was the smart choice. I'm still a bit down on him from his mangled Coldplay performance. I can't imagine what he could do to make me take him seriously. He'll hang around, but I don't see any real potential.
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Alexis Grace - "Dirty Diana"
Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 60
Versatility: 55
Star power: 55
Song choice: 60
How does that voice come out of that little body? Jesus. Megan wins the beauty contest, but Alexis wins the Hot Contest. Perfect song. Another one who seems to know exactly what to do and so far has pulled it off almost flawlessly. She did moody and bluesy, and she's done loud and angry. I think these ratings are justified based on what we've seen, and I hope she continues to earn them. But there is a part of me that wonders if we've already seen her best performances. I know she'll continue to be good, but can she keep being THIS good? If she's for real, she can win.
http://scoutingtheidols.blogspot.com/2009/03/scale.html
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Lil Rounds - "The Way You Make Me Feel"
Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 40
Versatility: 50
Star power: 55
Song choice: 50
Solid across the board. Not the same kind of "wow" performance from the previous round, but that's less an indictment of her skills than a logical by-product of the concentrated talent pool. It's suddenly much harder to separate yourself. I think she's in the upper third as far as pure ability, but she'll need to return to last week's form before I up the rating. The outfit was hideous; I tried to give it a 40 but couldn't do it. She does command a stage better than most at this point, even in that crazy get-up. Safe, solid song choice, as well. She probably could have picked something that would have let her show off more, but this one fit her personality we know thus far, and since she led off the show it was important to sing something upbeat.
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Scott MacIntyre - "Keep the Faith"
Vocal ability: 40
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 40
Star power: 40
Song choice: 55
Passionless. Awkward. Occasionally screechy. I think I think he's the worst singer to make it this far. That said, he was at least consistently mediocre throughout the performance. Seemed like there were a couple moments in the song when he could have at least attempted to do something a bit more interesting vocally, but he passed on them. It's hard to imagine him nailing any Michael Jackson song. He wisely chose to use the piano, but that shouldn't carry him far, either. Stage presence-wise, it had all the drama of a middle school recital. All of that said, he's an inspirational story of sorts and probably the most likely contestant to last longer than his skills actually justify.
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Danny Gokey - "P.Y.T (Pretty Young Thing)"
Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 55
Star power: 50
Song choice: 55
Right now I think he's the second-best singer in the competition. I really like the soulful lower register he possesses. I rate the consistency high because each time he's performed there's been no doubt that his performance would prove to be one of the standouts. His snazzier look was an improvement in my opinion, but I'm still not sure he's found the right one just yet. Ditching the glasses might help pull it all together. He's done an excellent job thus far showing off his versatility, having nailed a Mariah Carey ballad and an energetic MJ number. The dancing left plenty to be desired, but that's of no concern, at least not at this point. He's very likable, but not what you'd call charismatic. Another solid song choice which effectively showcased his personality, though I'd liked to have seen him take a stab at "Will You Be There."
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Michael Sarver - "You Are Not Alone"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 40
Song choice: 55
The surprise of the night. I was so disappointed about him advancing to this round I actually wanted him to forget his lyrics tonight just to ensure he'd go no farther. Certainly not the best singer, but he sung well enough tonight to advance. Nothing about him says "star," so without the pipes or the presence to lean compensate for other weaknesses, I doubt he'll last long. But the steadiness suggests he could get by for a couple more weeks if some other competitors choke. He sung the exact kind of song he needed to, but I still find him boring.
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Jasmine Murray - "I'll Be There"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 50
Well, the numbers don't lie. She was average. There were moments when she seemed on the verge of trying to take the song over, but she either shied away or just doesn't have it in her; I'm still on the fence about which it is. She's got the looks but doesn't demand attention as a performer or personality. Given her age, I think maybe she just lacks the confidence to take a risk and try to turn some heads. Instead of flaming out, she's content to fade away, and that's probably the path she's headed down. She'll hang around for a few weeks until average is no longer good enough to make the cut. That said, out of everyone clustered in the middle of the pack, she's the best bet to suddenly figure something out and turn herself into a legitimate contender.
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Kris Allen - "Remember the Time"
Vocal ability: 45
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 45
Song choice: 45
When he was in college I'm sure he was the dreamy boy who played guitar and sang, but now he's stuck battling Scott to avoid being the worst of the Top 13. A painful performance. After choosing "Man in the Mirror" earlier on, you'd think he'd have a grasp of what MJ songs he can and can't do. What was the point of the guitar? He could have just played air-guitar and we wouldn't have heard any fewer chords. At least Scott displayed a genuine talent with the piano. The song choice was probably as good as he could have done, short of a mediocre, repeat performance of MITM. Now that we know he's married, hopefully that will suppress the teenage girl vote enough to send him home ASAP.
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Allison Iraheta - "Give In To Me"
Vocal ability: 55
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 55
Song choice: 55
One of my favorites coming into this round, and she just happens to choose my favorite MJ song (just let it go, we're not here to talk about me). I had her rendition of Heart's "Alone" stuck in my head for a week. She doesn't hit every note when she belts out these songs, but thus far her passion and audaciousness have carried her through. Also, quite a bold song choice for a 16-year-old. None of that is an attempt to divert attention from a middling voice, because I think her voice is very good and she hasn't yet shown her full range. Which brings us to the one negative up to this point: while her two performances have been excellent, they've been nearly identical in tone. She's been clear about "who she is" and I think she chose the perfect song, but she'll also have to master some other song styles as she moves on.
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Anoop Desai - "Beat It"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 40
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 40
Likable guy, obviously, and he doesn't deserve to go home just yet, but he won't be around very long. Sometimes it seems he has a pretty good voice, but I don't think he knows what to sing to let it come out consistently week to week. Tonight's effort was pretty bad. He seems most comfortable with the upbeat songs, but it didn't work for him tonight. Choosing something from "Dangerous" would have been smarter and suited him better. Again, I think he underperformed his true talent level, and I don't usually subscribe to the "some songs are untouchable" school of thought, but if you choose "Beat It," you need to own it. He didn't.
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Jorge Nunez - "Never Can Say Goodbye"
Vocal ability: 55
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 45
Song choice: 45
I think Jorge has a good voice, but whereas there seemed to be some power in his performance in the last round, tonight it just sounded nice. He sang well, but also never did anything to make you pay attention. He's awkward on stage and quickly needs to show that he's something more than just a capable crooner.
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Megan Joy - "Rockin' Robin"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 60
Versatility: 40
Star power: 45
Song choice: 40
Another one who needs to break out of her comfort zone before it's too late. She's won the beauty contest, but now she needs to get serious about singing. I know I lauded a couple of similar performances from Allison and now I've taken to criticizing on similar grounds, but the magnitude of Allison's efforts dwarf Megan's. Megan has shown "who she is," is very good at what she does, and could very easily end up recording records being the performer we've seen. But tonight I just kept thinking how lucky she was that MJ had a song like this in his catalog. I don't know what else she could have sung. I like her voice and her look (sexier dress outweighs hideous tattoo, for now), but I also want to see a less-perky version before I'm willing to consider her even a fringe contender. Now, if she'd sang "Dirty Diana"...
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Adam Lambert - "Black or White"
Vocal ability: 65
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 50
Star power: 60
Song choice: 55
I know, I know, he has a ridiculous voice (can we have Hair Metal Week, please). But remember, the ratings are starting a bit on the conservative side here. There's no denying he's the class of the competition right now, though I'm a bit curious to see how he handles it when he has to knock the pure energy level down a notch or two. MJ is right up his vocal alley, and I wish he'd busted out "Thriller" or "Bad." He's had two knockout performances, but I don't think he can be that overwhelming every single week. There might even be some weeks where he's outdone by someone else. So, this is also where I insert a few words of caution about viewing the rest of the competition as an extended coronation. Yes, it's likely that he will continue to sing circles around just about everyone else, but let's not underestimate the potential for "Adam Fatigue" to set in. People do tend to push back at least a little bit when they feel they're not being given a fair chance to make up their own minds, and the judges sure haven't been shy about placing him on a pedestal all by his lonesome. As we get into the final rounds, other singers will have built up their fair share of fans, and it's possible that there will be enough collective resentment over feeling "their guy" never had a fair shot that enough voters line up against him. Being the best doesn't mean you can't lose.
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Matt Giraud - "Human Nature"
Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 50
He seemed to know exactly what he needed to do to safely advance. I think he probably has a good enough voice to have sung something more memorable, but singing nicely and playing the piano was the smart choice. I'm still a bit down on him from his mangled Coldplay performance. I can't imagine what he could do to make me take him seriously. He'll hang around, but I don't see any real potential.
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Alexis Grace - "Dirty Diana"
Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 60
Versatility: 55
Star power: 55
Song choice: 60
How does that voice come out of that little body? Jesus. Megan wins the beauty contest, but Alexis wins the Hot Contest. Perfect song. Another one who seems to know exactly what to do and so far has pulled it off almost flawlessly. She did moody and bluesy, and she's done loud and angry. I think these ratings are justified based on what we've seen, and I hope she continues to earn them. But there is a part of me that wonders if we've already seen her best performances. I know she'll continue to be good, but can she keep being THIS good? If she's for real, she can win.
The Grading Scale
As most of you are probably unfamiliar with the scouting scale I'll be applying, here's a brief introduction.
Baseball scouts rate prospects in five different categories on a scale ranging from 20-80. A score of 50 represents average ability, while a score of 20 is poor and 80 is elite. The five grades taken together give a reasonable assessment of how well-rounded a player is. For my purposes here, I'm bumping it up to six categories. The goal is to assess which singers are good at a couple things, which ones are good at a lot of things, and which ones are just great.
With 50 established as average, ratings can then increase or decrease in 5-point steps. The further above 50 the more exceptional the skill, and likewise in the opposite direction.
The categories I'll be rating contestants in are as follows:
Additionally, I'll post weekly power rankings after the results show has aired and a contestant has been eliminated.
With that, let's get on with it.
Baseball scouts rate prospects in five different categories on a scale ranging from 20-80. A score of 50 represents average ability, while a score of 20 is poor and 80 is elite. The five grades taken together give a reasonable assessment of how well-rounded a player is. For my purposes here, I'm bumping it up to six categories. The goal is to assess which singers are good at a couple things, which ones are good at a lot of things, and which ones are just great.
With 50 established as average, ratings can then increase or decrease in 5-point steps. The further above 50 the more exceptional the skill, and likewise in the opposite direction.
The categories I'll be rating contestants in are as follows:
- Vocals - Pure, raw talent
- Consistency - Singing to peak ability in-week and week-to-week
- Appearance - Self-explanatory
- Versatility - Ability to succeed with varying styles of music
- Star power - Natural ability as a performer; stage presence; likeability
- Song choice - A highly underrated skill
Additionally, I'll post weekly power rankings after the results show has aired and a contestant has been eliminated.
With that, let's get on with it.
An Introduction
Welcome to Scouting the Idols. This is my first season watching American Idol, but, more or less against my will, I've found myself immediately captivated by the competition. After watching the Top 13 perform earlier this evening (and drinking a bottle of wine) I was strangely overcome by an urge to write about the show.
Aside from a few years of piano lessons and playing the trumpet in sixth grade, I know nothing about music. Check that. I'm also an expert-level singer on Rock Band, but recognize that I have no business ever attempting to sing in a public setting. What I do have, however, is quite a passion for ratings, rankings, and sports. In that spirit, I've decided to apply the standard baseball scouting scale to this year's Idol contestants in an attempt to evaluate their performances and prospects in the competition.
My next post will explain in more detail the rating system, as well as the categories in which I'll be judging the contestants.
Aside from a few years of piano lessons and playing the trumpet in sixth grade, I know nothing about music. Check that. I'm also an expert-level singer on Rock Band, but recognize that I have no business ever attempting to sing in a public setting. What I do have, however, is quite a passion for ratings, rankings, and sports. In that spirit, I've decided to apply the standard baseball scouting scale to this year's Idol contestants in an attempt to evaluate their performances and prospects in the competition.
My next post will explain in more detail the rating system, as well as the categories in which I'll be judging the contestants.
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