Who Will You Run To?

In some respects, the Idol competition resembles an election. Of course there's voting and an eventual winner, but I'm thinking more about the primary phase of elections and the gradual whittling down of contenders. In politics, as candidates drop out there's suddenly a fresh well of support for the remaining contenders to draw from.

Ditto for American Idol. Certainly the effect won't be a large one at this stage of the competition with the votes spread out over so many contestants. But with each passing week as the field shrinks, the votes will become more and more concentrated.

This is where a fairly polarizing, love-him-or-hate-him competitor like Adam Lambert could find himself in trouble. Reading around the blogosphere this week, it's clear that Adam has a lot of supporters, but it also seems that he's nearly as likely to be disliked as he is to be liked.

Contrast this with someone like Danny or Lil, or even Anoop. Not everyone is terribly impressed with that group, either, but there's hardly any "I can't stand Danny" sentiment out there, while there's a fair amount of it directed at Adam.

Despite the adoration from the judges thus far, as singers get sent home and more and more votes come up for grabs, Adam might find himself picking up fewer of them than expected.